When a super massive star burns out, what's left collapses. There is so much 'stuff' to collapse that this huge amount of matter compresses into a black hole. It's called a black hole because the pull of gravity from the dead star will not allow even light to escape. This is cool stuff to think about.

But where's the business analogy?

Well, before a massive star dies, it first expands very rapidly. It expands a little too ...
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Just because something has not happened, does not mean it cannot happen.

Does your business planning take the wild cards into consideration?

If not, remember this: The outlier events, the extremes, are the ones that cripple a business.

Plan for them.

I'd like your comments on this...


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One of the reasons I started this site is to bring scientific thinking to business. For example, I believe too many business decisions are based on looking through the rear-view mirror. 

There are two serious problems with using past data to predict future results. First, historical performance, unless repeatable at will, is no indication of future results. Every investment must caution the potential investor of that very fact. You've heard those words many times: Past ...
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No, not the candy. Morbidity & Mortality Conference. It's a rough event.

Sometimes when a patient dies in hospital from other than purely obvious causes, the case is selected for M&M. The doctor responsible for the lost patient stands before his peers and explains the events leading to patient's demise. It's a dreaded process.

Hard questions are asked and judgment questioned. Did you make mistakes? Why did you administer that drug? Why so much? Why so little? ...
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