General Business

Just because something has not happened, does not mean it cannot happen.

Does your business planning take the wild cards into consideration?

If not, remember this: The outlier events, the extremes, are the ones that cripple a business.

Plan for them.

I'd like your comments on this...


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One of the reasons I started this site is to bring scientific thinking to business. For example, I believe too many business decisions are based on looking through the rear-view mirror. 

There are two serious problems with using past data to predict future results. First, historical performance, unless repeatable at will, is no indication of future results. Every investment must caution the potential investor of that very fact. You've heard those words many times: Past ...
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No, not the candy. Morbidity & Mortality Conference. It's a rough event.

Sometimes when a patient dies in hospital from other than purely obvious causes, the case is selected for M&M. The doctor responsible for the lost patient stands before his peers and explains the events leading to patient's demise. It's a dreaded process.

Hard questions are asked and judgment questioned. Did you make mistakes? Why did you administer that drug? Why so much? Why so little? ...
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Pressure. We're all under pressure. In fact, we're under a lot of pressure! The atmosphere is pushing us at about 14 pounds per square inch.

What? That doesn't seem like much? Okay, take a single die (one dice) and place it on your stomach. Now place a 14 pound bowling ball on that single die. That's 14 pounds per square inch.

We don't feel it because we're used to it. Depressurize a jet and you'd ...
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